-
Bradford Doolittle
Shut
ESPN Employees Author- Sports activities reporter, Kansas Metropolis Star, 2002-09
- Author, Baseball, Baseball Prospectus
- Co-author, Professional Basketball Prospectus
- Member, Baseball Writers Affiliation of America
- Member, Skilled Basketball Writers Affiliation
-
David Schoenfield
ShutESPN Senior Author- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Web page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995
The San Diego Padres and famous person shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. agreed to a 14-year, $340 million contract extension Wednesday evening, a supply tells ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The deal is the third-largest contract in MLB historical past, trailing solely Mookie Betts and Mike Trout’s file paydays.
What does the deal imply for Tatis, the Padres and the remainder of the game? Will San Diego win its first World Sequence with Tatis because the face of its franchise? The place does the newly paid Friar rank amongst MLB’s finest gamers? And who might be in line for the subsequent main extension? We requested ESPN MLB consultants David Schoenfield and Bradford Doolittle to weigh in.
Fourteen years, $340 million? What do you make of the years and complete {dollars} the Padres are giving their younger famous person?
Doolittle: Fourteen years is … a very very long time. By the top of this deal, groups shall be flying from their lodges on the street — which shall be constructed within the sky like Lando’s metropolis in “The Empire Strikes Again” — and going to the ballpark in hovercraft. Everybody could have a robotic maid with curler skate toes named Rosie. However by then, who is aware of, $30 million will barely be sufficient to cowl a 12 months’s lease for a studio residence within the Gaslamp quarter. The Marlins shall be taking part in in a ballpark constructed on stilts. My feeling is that the Padres suppose Fernando Tatis Jr. goes to be actually good for a very very long time. If anybody is value this sort of contract at 22, it is most likely him.
Schoenfield: I do not suppose we’re allowed to curse right here, however holy … cow! Speak about shopping for out his free agent years. I like this. I like the Padres spending the cash to lock up a participant who might be the most effective and most fun franchise cornerstone within the recreation for the subsequent decade-plus, a participant who — sure — has the potential to be the most effective participant in franchise historical past. It is not with out danger since Tatis had the again damage as a rookie, however from what we have seen in his two half-season within the majors, if he stays wholesome it will show to be a sensible funding for the Padres.
What does it imply for the Padres to have Tatis locked up for his prime years at such a younger age?
Doolittle: The Padres see what everybody sees, which is that Tatis is the complete package deal and never simply due to what he does on the sector. He is an awesome hitter whose peak remains to be properly sooner or later. He is an awesome athlete who holds down crucial defensive place on the sector, however he is massive, too, and sometime shall be an All-Star at different positions. And for a workforce that hasn’t had a real franchise icon since Tony Gwynn retired, Tatis could be that for the Padres, in addition to one for all of baseball. Greater than something, it indicators to San Diego followers that the Pads aren’t simply loading up for a short-term problem to the Dodgers. They plan on being an element 12 months in, 12 months out.
Schoenfield: It means the Padres are going to promote a number of tickets in upcoming seasons as they go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers in the most effective rivalry in MLB for the reason that Crimson Sox and Yankees circa 2004. I believe there is a lesson to be realized right here for all organizations, big-market or small-market: the Padres didn’t fiddle with Tatis’ service time again in 2019 as he made the Opening Day roster. They might have simply have stored him in Triple-A for a pair weeks to protect one other season of workforce management. Perhaps that gesture helped them lock up Tatis with this contract.
0:21
Fernando Tatis Jr. hits an opposite-field residence run and celebrates in model throughout the Padres’ playoff matchup with Cardinals.
The place does Tatis rank among the many finest gamers in baseball proper now?
Doolittle: He is on the quick record. Mike Trout hasn’t relinquished his crown but, and if he does, Mookie Betts might be finest positioned to take his place. After that, you get into the group of quick risers, like Tatis, Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr. There shall be others who rise to problem, like maybe Wander Franco. However as we put together for that debate, the necessary factor to remember is that there are actually solely a handful of transcendent gamers within the massive leagues at any given time and the Padres have locked one among them up for the foreseeable future.
Schoenfield: He is proper close to the highest. He now has a couple of full season’s value of taking part in time (148 video games, 629 plate appearances) and has hit .301/.374/.582 with 39 residence runs, 27 steals and seven.0 WAR. His plate self-discipline improved in 2020, as he minimize his strikeout charge from 29.6% to 23.7%. He is coming into his age-22 season and has an opportunity to be the most effective participant within the recreation — which, surprisingly, is not as uncommon as that sounds.
Ten gamers have led their league in bWAR at 22: Ted Williams, Ty Cobb, Bryce Harper, Stan Musial, Alex Rodriguez, Cal Ripken Jr., Pete Reiser, Trout, Johnny Bench and Rogers Hornsby. These are all inner-circle gamers besides Harper (who hasn’t been capable of match that 2015 season) and Reiser, who bought injured. Like Brad, I’d nonetheless lean to Trout or Betts as finest in 2021, however Tatis has inner-circle potential.
In case you have been beginning a workforce, the place would Tatis rank among the many present gamers you’d select to construct round?
Doolittle: If we take the query at face worth — beginning a workforce — then we’re speaking a couple of course of that takes awhile and due to that, I would take Tatis over Trout, Betts or anybody else. The explanations are apparent and mirror people who impressed the Padres to make this funding. He is very younger, superb, has a ability and place profile that can maintain him viable for a very long time to return and, better of all, he offers my new workforce a right away id and a purpose to return to the ballpark it doesn’t matter what else is happening.
Schoenfield: Whereas I would nonetheless think about Trout or Betts, I believe I’d goal for one of many three younger phenoms. Acuna has extra velocity and is a greater defender than Soto, however his strikeout charge will finally restrict his offensive upside — he is nonetheless wonderful although, hitting .250/.406/.581 in 2020. Soto, nonetheless, has an opportunity to be a generational hitter within the mode of a Williams with ridiculous triple-slash traces like 2020’s .351/.490/.695. If he can do that each season, I am going to stay along with his protection. However for all-around brilliance, I am going to go along with Tatis, who has developed into at the least a mean shortstop on protection, perhaps somewhat higher. That provides him the nod of Acuna or Soto (the one caveat being the again damage he had in 2019, which maybe makes the opposite two safer long-term decisions).
Shortstop is loaded in MLB proper now, the place does Tatis rank among the many finest within the recreation on the place?
Doolittle: Tatis could already be the most effective hitter on the place. When it comes to all-around play, I would nonetheless lean in direction of Francisco Lindor, however it might be a troublesome name. And even that’s solely a query is we’re speaking about which man offers me a greater likelihood to win this 12 months. If we widen the timeframe any wider than that, then it is Tatis, no query. It might already be Tatis.
Schoenfield: Yeah, I believe it is Tatis as properly. Lindor’s protection makes it shut, however he is additionally topped out at a .358 OBP in his finest season (and simply .335 every of the previous two seasons). Lindor’s sturdiness is an enormous plus and we nonetheless should see how Tatis fares in that class. Finally, I am a believer in Tatis’ protection, so he will get my vote (with additional apologies to the underrated Trevor Story and I really feel Corey Seager goes to have an enormous 2021).
What number of World Sequence will the Padres win throughout the size of Tatis’ contract?
Doolittle: Two. The Padres are poised for yearly rivalry and so long as they’ll keep away from too many catastrophic contracts, they seem like keen to play in a reasonably excessive payroll bracket. And naturally there’s a matter of an excellent and still-deep farm system.
Consider this: The Padres signed Ha-Seong Kim over the winter and he profiles as a first-division shortstop proper now. With San Diego, he’ll play second base or transfer round. Then there may be CJ Abrams, the most effective shortstop prospect within the non-Wander class and among the finest general prospects within the recreation. When you’ve got maybe the sport’s finest participant already at that spot, that is an incredible luxurious to have. To illustrate Tatis bulks up and loses some defensive vary. Effective, you progress him over and let Abrams do his factor. Otherwise you transfer Abrams if he’s forcing your hand and use him in, say, middle discipline. Otherwise you use Abrams to anchor a blockbuster addition that balances the roster. San Diego is in the most effective sense of the phrase loaded.
Schoenfield: I am curious to see what occurs to Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers in 2021 as each carried out method above their profession norms within the shortened season. In the event that they fall again to earth, the offense could also be extra superb than nice — and that makes the Dodgers the decisive favourite, at the least this season and perhaps 2022, earlier than the subsequent wave like Abrams and Luis Campusano make an influence.
To not point out the Braves have an awesome basis and the Mets are maybe constructing one as properly. However the Padres are going to be proper there for the foreseeable future — Brad did not even point out potential future ace Mackenzie Gore. It is simply that the NL goes to be massacre for the fast future. So I am going to lean extra conservative and say one title.
Which younger star might be subsequent to get a megadeal like Tatis’ contract?
Doolittle: Soto looks as if a very good wager. The Nationals have the sources and after dropping Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon in recent times, they determine to be motivated to maintain a two-star basis in place in Soto and Trea Turner. Soto will not fairly garner a Tatis-level dedication as a result of he is a nook outfielder however, then once more, he is perhaps a 2021 Ted Williams, so that you by no means know.
Schoenfield: Soto is sensible. With Max Scherzer a free agent after 2021 and in the event that they do convey him again it will likely be on a brief deal given his age, so that they want maintain Soto as that famous person face of the franchise. How about Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers? He isn’t a free agent till after 2023, but when Seager leaves after this season, they might need to lock up Bellinger to a long-term deal.
